Economy Archives - ET2C International

China and the RMB

New Deference for the Renminbi

Late last month the International Monetary Fund (IMF) declared that the Chinese Renminbi (RMB) is no longer undervalued, indicating a significant shift in the organization’s public criticism of Chinese monetary policies. Speaking in Beijing during a regular review of China’s economy, First Deputy Managing Director of the IMF David Lipton said;

 

“While undervaluation of the renminbi was a major factor causing large imbalances in the past, our assessment is that the substantial real effective appreciation over the past year has brought the exchange rate to a level that is no longer undervalued.”

 

The currency has made significant strides in the past 5 years. In 2011 through early 2014, the Chinese government managed a persistent and steady appreciation of an undervalued currency, which allowed the rate of the RMB against the USD to increase at a similar rate. According to Standard Chartered Bank, the yearly use of the RMB has expanded 21 times since 2010, and the bank also predicted that 28 percent of all international trade will be dominated by the RMB by 2020. Furthermore, China’s RMB is already the world’s fifth most used currency, ahead of the AUD and CAD, which has prompted many central banks to hold it as part of their reserves. As part of David Lipton’s review last month, the currency is in the workings of becoming a part of the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights after a subsequent round of screening this November. An inclusion in the SDR, an international reserve asset created by the IMF as a supplement to member countries’ official reserves, would be the first time an emerging market currency joined the basket which comprises the dollar, the euro, the yen and the pound sterling.

 

Pushes toward a more Open Market

 

Economists at the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and leaders of the Chinese government are keen to gain this accolade for their currency. However, as the IMF has pointed out, there must be further monetary liberalizations by the PBOC to make the RMB a free floating liquid currency. There have only been modest developments in the depth and liquidity of foreign exchange in China in the past decade, and tight controls on the RMB offer very little flexibility for currency trading. Pan Gongsheng, Vice-Governor of the People’s Bank of China however assured monetary policy reforms were underway in stating that “China is not far from realizing its goal of capital-liberalization.”

 

Further statements and new initiatives put the PBOC’s commitment to opening the capital account by the end of the year on public record. Reports show that there are new statements and measures that are aimed at creating a more market driven economy in China. Recently, the PBOC raised the interest ceiling in order to convince banks to act more competitively while creating a fluctuating interest rate. Recognizing these efforts, Mr. Lipton from the IMF shared that the international body will “share this objective and will work closely with the Chinese authorities in this regard,” while noting that the inclusion of the RMB in the Special Drawing Rights’ fund is “not a matter of ‘if’ but when.”

 

ET2C is always observing market trends in Asia. To learn more how we are using this as part of your supply chain management plan or to chat about market trends feel free to contact ET2C today.

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India in the Global Economy

Good News for India

 

Positive economic and manufacturing trends continue to surface as India continues to add credibility to the government wide “Make in India” campaign. ET2C has often mentioned the merits of the “Make in India” campaign and have lauded efforts by Narendra Modi to improve the manufacturing landscape in his country. Good tides continue to reach the shores of India, as the recent drop in oil prices has given the country a great boost to the country’s effort ongoing effort to open up to foreign buyers.

The precariously dropping price of oil has had severely adverse effects on oil exporting nations such as Russia and Venezuela. However for oil importers such as India, the drop has been welcome and in fact quite beneficial. The developing Indian economy has long been reliant on imported oil and this has impeded the maturation of Indian manufacturing sector. Even in last year, the high price of oil added a $100 billion drag on the economy. Up to now, logistics in India were often expensive but since crude prices now halved, fuel costs for trucks and cars have also plunged. This has helped lower transport expenses and has quelled inflation of goods and services in India. Government fuel subsidies have notably lowered as well, which has helped the control the country’s chronic budget deficits. “We’ve got essentially a $50 billion gift for the economy,” said Raghuram G. Rajan, the governor of the Reserve Bank of India.

 

Greater Ease of Business

 

Indian finance minister Arun Jaitley also recently made moves to speed along India’s transition. His new budget was filled with proposals that are expected to help manufacturers save on costs while allowing further access to skilled labor. The budget announcement featured specific proposals such as reduction of customs duties and taxes while speaking of government efforts to allow for a greater ease of business.  Finance minister Jaitley stressed the imperative of his tax proposals as they were inclusive in the promotion of manufacturing.  Prime Minister Modi’s influence and cohesion on his government became easily transparent, as the phrase ‘manufacturing’ was found mentioned 15 times in Jaitley’s speech while Make in India was heard 10 times.

Moreover, much like Modi’s influence and political accountability, the finance minister remained true to his word. He announced customs duty cuts on 22 items that will allow Indian companies to import parts to manufacture products at a much lower cost, thus driving Indian supply chain costs down. With every month India poses itself as an even more attractive manufacturing base for your sourcing needs. Please contact us today for more information regarding ET2C’s expanding sourcing and procurement capabilities in India.

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News on Indian Textiles

India’s history and traditions are woven with the spectacular art and skill that is involved in making textiles produced by thousands of weavers across the country. This mastery of the cloth is not only beautiful, but also extremely beneficial for the Indian economy.

It would almost seem that India textile makers do not even know how great their industry is. For each of the three preceding fiscal years, India has overachieved target sets for textile exports. In fiscal year 2011-12, India exported textiles and apparels totaling US $32.74 billion, well over their target of $28.13 billion for that year. 2012-12 saw similar growth and success, with total exports amounting $34.93 billion over a target of $31 billion. The story was the same in 2013-14, with exports coming to $39.45 compared to a $34 billion target.

Consistently overshooting their target would suggest that Indian textile makers are setting numbers too low, but this type of demand and production demonstrates the quality and consistency of Indian cloth. Reports indicate that these numbers are of course set to grow over the next five years, which will bring more textile options to Western consumers. Production is set to increase up to 112 billion square meters by 2017, which is nearly double the rate it from measurements conducted in 2011. As development continues in the country, India is deemed to have the capacity to produce textiles due to impressive changes within in its economic and demographic development. This will align and create favorable conditions for growth in several categories such as home textiles, apparel and a wide range of other technical textiles. The Indian government is capitalizing this production as part of the ‘Made in India’ campaign by creating more textile parks across the country as well.

Clearly, India has a superior capability to make quality textiles, however the government is also making strides in order to get the product out of the country faster. Recently India and the European Union have reopened a trade agreement known as the Broad-based Trade and Investment Agreement. The BTIA would be the first major economic engagement between the 27 nation EU and India, and if passed it will liberalize merchandize trade for both parties.

Please contact ET2C today for more information about sourcing and procuring Indian textiles.

 

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Tertiary Results of Vietnam’s Economic Growth

2014 has been quite a breakthrough year for the Vietnamese economy and manufacturing sector. The Southeast Asian nation is at last receiving proper recognition for their sound economic policies and efforts to bolster their manufacturing sectors. Standard & Poor’s, Fitch, and Moody’s has upgraded the county’s credit rating earlier this year with applause for Vietnamese efforts towards strong macroeconomic stabilization.

The rating upgrade was well deserved, as the Vietnamese economy continues to expand and create jobs. The GDP growth rate is up 5.62 percent when compared to same time last year and in October, the Vietnam’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was rated at 51.0, indicating a positive outlook for the manufacturing for the country. HSBC forecasts that exports will account for nearly 80 percent of the country’s gross domestic product this year, making Vietnam one of the region’s fiercest competitors with their low cost labor and generous tax benefits for foreign buyers.

Due to this frenzy in manufacturing, logistics companies are receiving a massive increase in orders from Vietnam to various destinations throughout the world. Currently the country has one of the world’s fastest growth rates in airborne shipment rates and it is enticing the region’s biggest cargo airlines to shift more attention to the country. Earlier this year DHL opened a $10 million shipping facility at Ho Chi Minh City’s Tan Son Nhat International Airport to meet an increasing export demand in the country, while Korean and Cathway Airlines have expressed similar keens interest in expansion. In reference to a fully packed plane, a DHL representative was quoted as saying, “This symbolizes the rest of trade in Vietnam. We are going to have a good fourth quarter.” Surely his statement is accurate, as the American Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam reports that shipments may increase by 19 percent for ($29 billion) this year.

ET2C’s Vietnamese office has taken notice of this manufacturing upheavel, and in fact, our clients’ orders are actively contributing to this economic expansion. With focuses on a variety of hardgoods and softgoods, our Vietnamese office has been serving clients since 2007 from Ho Chi Minh City. In recent years we have seen increases in orders from Vietnam’s suppliers due to lowered labor costs, which can at times be 20% cheaper than neighboring countries. ET2C is also able to take advantage of Vietnam’s very low import and export tax duties, which in turn lowers costs for our clients. Contact us today to find out how we can set up value-added sourcing solution for your needs.

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New Foreign Investment in Indian Suppliers

In our past our articles, ET2C has lauded efforts by India Prime Minister Narendra Modi to reinvigorate the country’s stagnant economy. With a new budget and sweeping reforms, it is now obvious that Modi has moved beyond the rhetoric and is indeed actually providing tangible change for the Indian economy. With this, the 3rd largest economy in Asia is now piquing the interest of the most powerful global companies by inviting them into a lucrative and exciting market.

For one there is Jeff Bezos, CEO of e-commerce monolith Amazon.com, who was seen proudly holding a mock-up of a $2 billion cheque in tech capital Bangalore earlier this month. The company plans to launch an aggressive expansion plan in India to expand Amazon’s global reach. “I’m super excited” said Bezos, in a statement that is quite indicative of the mood in the country. India’s well known IT sector is thriving under Modi and many other firms and startups are feeding into this enthusiasm. Amazon’s investment may seem large, but in this market such a grand amount is absolutely necessary in order to compete with the other billion dollar figures that are being tauted by competitors.

Naturally, Modi’s fiscal efforts are having a direct effect on the manufacturing sector and Indian sourcing capabiliities as well. Orders for Indian vendors have increased over the past year as retailers and others are seeking to join in on the potential of a new Indian economy.

British department store Marks & Spencer’s, who has 60% of their sourcing operations already in India, are seeking to expand in the country. There is a similar story for IKEA, who sourced $450 million worth of products from India in 2013. They seek to more than double this figure by 2016 by closing at a near $1 billion bill for the Indian sourcing operations. This could possibly make the country be the largest sourcing point for the Swedish furniture giant, signaling a great deal of confidence in Indian vendors. Like Marks & Spencer’s, IKEA is also seeking to expand their retail presence in India by opening over two dozen locations in the country over the next ten years.

Surprisingly enough, the U.S. White House is also submitting sourcing orders for the President’s private transport. The cabins for the new line of ‘Marine One’ helicopters, the air transport for the US President’s exclusive use, will be made in India. The Indian aviation manufacturer ‘Tata Advanced Systems’ is responsible for constructing the airframes on behalf of American aerospace firm Sikorsky Aircraft. Eyeing the potential for the Indian market, Sikorsky is committed to investing into the country for the next 25 years and beyond.

Likewise, with our presence in Bangalore, ET2C also believes in the potential of this nascent but promising manufacturing market. We too have noticed the sprawling changes that Modi’s new government can offer and have already been able to benefit from reforms and new fiscal initiatives. Our company is currently expanding our India office accept more client orders, all while finding great manufacturing resources within the nation. By adding to our numerous relationships with suppliers in India, ET2C is committed to helping our clients benefit from the great products that Indian vendors can offer. Contact ET2C today to discuss the advantages of an Indian sourcing strategy.

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Vietnam Economic Trends Indicate Stability & Growth

Vietnam’s economy continues to perform well throughout the first half of 2014 as multiple indicators signal a robust and growing nation. Not at all deterred by an overblown international incident with China over a sea border dispute, the country continues its solid record in economic development.

While Vietnamese rubber and food exports to China decreased slightly in May and June, exports to other trading partners significantly increased. Trades with Australia and Oceania were especially strong and showed a 31% increase over last year, while all other regions displayed double digit growth rates.

This significant growth rate can largely be attributed to currency manipulation by the Vietnamese. The Vietnam Dong was devalued for the first time in a year, leading a GDP rise of 5.25 in Q2 compared to a year earlier. The government continues to bolster their economy in an attempt to expand their economy to 5.8 percent growth rate for this year. Currently Vietnam’s trade surplus stands at $1.3 billion and local stocks are said to be at their best since 2009.

Naturally, foreign brands are seeking to join in on Vietnam’s economic prosperity. Although the streets of Hanoi are already lined with a seemingly endless amount of cafes, Starbucks feels optimistic about adding three more coffee shops to as part of their Vietnam expansion. The coffee chain already has eight stores in Ho Chi Minh City and feels that their focus on “meaningful service with passion and care” will help them stand out in Vietnam. Apple also views Vietnam as a new country full of potential, with reports that some Vietnamese are willing to spend more than two months’ salary on an iPhone or iPad in order to acquire recognition and increased status that comes with owning this expensive product.

The growing Vietnamese economy will certainly continue to make the country a stable choice as a trading option. Furthermore, these promising signs of economic improvement precede a growing a commitment to infrastructure improvement and overall ease of business within Vietnam.

Moreover, with this news we can note that severe geo-political situations, such as the one last month with China which resulted in riots and looted factories, can only cause minor problems in the health of the manufacturing sector.  John Pallis, the director of the ET2C Vietnam office noted that currently all factory operations are back to normal and stated that the rioting caused minimal disruption to local supply chains. With this, it seems that these quarrels with neighboring countries will not disrupt the economic prosperity of the region, allowing Vietnam to reinforce its strength as a manufacturing nation.

      

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Bullish Indian Economy Attracts FDI from Japan

Reports on India’s financial numbers continue to promise economic prosperity for the nation. Indicators are up in almost all sectors as the government’s promises for economic upheaval continues to inspire the nation.A swath of hopeful predictions are being made for the nation, as India’s exports are expected to increase from $40 billion at present to $85 billion in 2023 which will ideally allow the nation to achieve a GDP growth rate of 7 percent per annum.

Other countries have taken note of India’s bright prospects, as Japanese investors have ranked India as the top choice for investment potential in comparison to other emerging markets. As part of the Japanese government’s goals for their economy, the country is seeking to triple infrastructure orders for India to about $300 billion within the next 10 years. Japan feels their country will be an important investor in India’s much needed infrastructure, stating that with their regional experience they will have an instrumental role in bringing India into Asia’s elaborate cross-country manufacturing supply chain.

This is good news for India, as newly elected India Prime Minister Narendra Modi  is eager unblock stalled infrastructure products and seeks to promote growth by creating new high-speed train lines and smart cities. With ambitions from Shinzo Abe to boost the Japanese infrastructure-system export orders, Japan is natural answer that can help revitalize India’s stagnant economic growth. Leaders Modi and Shinzo are reported to already have established a good rapport on personal level, and analysts have posited “bilateral economic relations between Japan and India are set to blossom.

While news on FDI generally promises a brighter for future India, the implications for Japanese investment are diverse. Firstly, as the Japanese have a wealth of expertise in infrastructure development, the newly created work by these foreign investors is certain to be reliable and capable to deliver quality products. With this pedigree, foreign buyers can trust that their sourcing orders will be at the same standards as any other manufacturing nation in South-East Asia. Furthermore, Japanese infrastructure is bound to expedite India’s capabilities for manufacturing and export, while alleviating pressure on the Indian government.

By allowing the Japanese to focus on key manufacturing areas, India will consistently improve its abilities to receive and expedite orders. Our Indian office noted that some of these investments have already provided great changes in Bangalore. Hari Sankar, the office director noted these changes in the automobile and telecommunications sector in surrounding areas are already improving the ability to source. Overall, this genuine cooperation between India and Japan is sure to bring increased success to the region.

      

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Chinese Domestic Brands Continue to Strengthen Internationally

Fostered by government protectionism and increased consumer spending, domestic Chinese brands have enjoyed boundless success over the past decade. The first half of 2014 saw some of China’s most powerful companies make substantial deals abroad in order to strengthen their international business operations. The evidence is clear in the stories of companies like Alibaba,

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Chinese – Vietnam Relations Sour over Territory Disputes

Recent antagonism between China and its southern neighbor Vietnam has severely hampered relations between the nations, inciting riots against in Vietnam and a plethora of rhetoric from Beijing. Earlier in May, an encounter between Vietnamese vessels and Chinese ships near an oil rig in disputed waters of the South China Sea ended with the sinking of a Vietnamese fishing boat. Denying claims of responsibility, a senior official in Beijing fired back in saying “Vietnam’s disruptions of the Chinese company’s normal activities have seriously violated China’s sovereignty, sovereignty rights and jurisdiction, gravely affected the normal order of production and operation and the safety of China’s rig, and caused unnecessary troubles for China-Vietnam relations.” The rig, owned by state-run China National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC) Group is roughly 150 miles (240 km) off the Vietnamese coast and 206 miles (330 km) from China’s southern Hainan Island.

China is Vietnam’s largest trading partner and it would seem the Vietnamese dependence on Chinese exports cannot be ignored. According to government data, bilateral trade between the two countries rose 84% to $50.2 billion last year from $27.3 billion in 2010. Chinese raw materials are essential to Vietnam’s manufacturing sector, and as of now it seems that only the tourism sector has suffered due to this incident.

Talks regarding a settlement over this dispute have yielded limited results, however analysts believe that a strongly shared mutual desire for regional economic prosperity will quash this feud soon. The Economist recently pointed that despite rioting and looting by the Vietnamese, the government is focused on maintaining the country’s image as a reliable, low-risk investment destination.

      

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