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China and the RMB

New Deference for the Renminbi

Late last month the International Monetary Fund (IMF) declared that the Chinese Renminbi (RMB) is no longer undervalued, indicating a significant shift in the organization’s public criticism of Chinese monetary policies. Speaking in Beijing during a regular review of China’s economy, First Deputy Managing Director of the IMF David Lipton said;

 

“While undervaluation of the renminbi was a major factor causing large imbalances in the past, our assessment is that the substantial real effective appreciation over the past year has brought the exchange rate to a level that is no longer undervalued.”

 

The currency has made significant strides in the past 5 years. In 2011 through early 2014, the Chinese government managed a persistent and steady appreciation of an undervalued currency, which allowed the rate of the RMB against the USD to increase at a similar rate. According to Standard Chartered Bank, the yearly use of the RMB has expanded 21 times since 2010, and the bank also predicted that 28 percent of all international trade will be dominated by the RMB by 2020. Furthermore, China’s RMB is already the world’s fifth most used currency, ahead of the AUD and CAD, which has prompted many central banks to hold it as part of their reserves. As part of David Lipton’s review last month, the currency is in the workings of becoming a part of the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights after a subsequent round of screening this November. An inclusion in the SDR, an international reserve asset created by the IMF as a supplement to member countries’ official reserves, would be the first time an emerging market currency joined the basket which comprises the dollar, the euro, the yen and the pound sterling.

 

Pushes toward a more Open Market

 

Economists at the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and leaders of the Chinese government are keen to gain this accolade for their currency. However, as the IMF has pointed out, there must be further monetary liberalizations by the PBOC to make the RMB a free floating liquid currency. There have only been modest developments in the depth and liquidity of foreign exchange in China in the past decade, and tight controls on the RMB offer very little flexibility for currency trading. Pan Gongsheng, Vice-Governor of the People’s Bank of China however assured monetary policy reforms were underway in stating that “China is not far from realizing its goal of capital-liberalization.”

 

Further statements and new initiatives put the PBOC’s commitment to opening the capital account by the end of the year on public record. Reports show that there are new statements and measures that are aimed at creating a more market driven economy in China. Recently, the PBOC raised the interest ceiling in order to convince banks to act more competitively while creating a fluctuating interest rate. Recognizing these efforts, Mr. Lipton from the IMF shared that the international body will “share this objective and will work closely with the Chinese authorities in this regard,” while noting that the inclusion of the RMB in the Special Drawing Rights’ fund is “not a matter of ‘if’ but when.”

 

ET2C is always observing market trends in Asia. To learn more how we are using this as part of your supply chain management plan or to chat about market trends feel free to contact ET2C today.

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ET2C Wins SDCE Award

ET2C International is happy to announce that supply chain management magazine Supply & Demand Chain Executive has chosen our company for their yearly Top 100 supply chain project list. Our company is proud to accept this award as a sign of our commitment to our clients as well as a marker of our expertise in supply chain management. We most of all would like to thank all of our clients for your constant support and wish to continue these cherished business relationships for many more years to come.

In a comment on this award, ET2C International CEO Richard Archer-Perkins said “I am honored and thrilled to receive this award from Supply & Demand Chain Executive. Year on year we commit our best work for all of our treasured clients and we are always here in China, India and Vietnam whenever you need us. I would like to personally thank each and every one you for helping us create ET2C into the company it is today. I look forward to adding more value to your company’s sourcing and procurement operations in South-East Asia.”

ET2C International greatly appreciates this award as it coincides with our company’s 14th year anniversary. On looking back on the past decade and a half, we fondly remember all of the clients that have helped us build our company. With this honor, we look forward to continuous improvement while we work towards greater expansion in Asia in order to find the most qualified suppliers for your sourcing and procurement needs.

About Supply & Demand Chain Executive

Supply & Demand Chain Executive is the executive’s user manual for successful supply and demand chain transformation, utilizing hard-hitting analysis, viewpoints and unbiased case studies to steer executives and supply management professionals through the complicated, yet critical, world of supply and demand chain enablement to gain competitive advantage. On the Web: www.SDCExec.com.

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India in the Global Economy

Good News for India

 

Positive economic and manufacturing trends continue to surface as India continues to add credibility to the government wide “Make in India” campaign. ET2C has often mentioned the merits of the “Make in India” campaign and have lauded efforts by Narendra Modi to improve the manufacturing landscape in his country. Good tides continue to reach the shores of India, as the recent drop in oil prices has given the country a great boost to the country’s effort ongoing effort to open up to foreign buyers.

The precariously dropping price of oil has had severely adverse effects on oil exporting nations such as Russia and Venezuela. However for oil importers such as India, the drop has been welcome and in fact quite beneficial. The developing Indian economy has long been reliant on imported oil and this has impeded the maturation of Indian manufacturing sector. Even in last year, the high price of oil added a $100 billion drag on the economy. Up to now, logistics in India were often expensive but since crude prices now halved, fuel costs for trucks and cars have also plunged. This has helped lower transport expenses and has quelled inflation of goods and services in India. Government fuel subsidies have notably lowered as well, which has helped the control the country’s chronic budget deficits. “We’ve got essentially a $50 billion gift for the economy,” said Raghuram G. Rajan, the governor of the Reserve Bank of India.

 

Greater Ease of Business

 

Indian finance minister Arun Jaitley also recently made moves to speed along India’s transition. His new budget was filled with proposals that are expected to help manufacturers save on costs while allowing further access to skilled labor. The budget announcement featured specific proposals such as reduction of customs duties and taxes while speaking of government efforts to allow for a greater ease of business.  Finance minister Jaitley stressed the imperative of his tax proposals as they were inclusive in the promotion of manufacturing.  Prime Minister Modi’s influence and cohesion on his government became easily transparent, as the phrase ‘manufacturing’ was found mentioned 15 times in Jaitley’s speech while Make in India was heard 10 times.

Moreover, much like Modi’s influence and political accountability, the finance minister remained true to his word. He announced customs duty cuts on 22 items that will allow Indian companies to import parts to manufacture products at a much lower cost, thus driving Indian supply chain costs down. With every month India poses itself as an even more attractive manufacturing base for your sourcing needs. Please contact us today for more information regarding ET2C’s expanding sourcing and procurement capabilities in India.

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Chinese GDP in 2015

Earlier this month during at the National People’s Congress in Beijing Chinese Premier Li Keqiang announced a number of new targets for China’s economy. A 7% GDP growth rate was the figure that worried many news outlets and economic analysts that China’s strength is declining. While it is true that this is China’s slowest economic growth in 24 years, there is no need for fear as Mr. Li’s statements reflect a plan to guide the country’s economy to more stable and sustainable growth.

It’s worth noting that even at a lowered rate of 7%, China’s growth is still the envy of most countries. China may never see double-digit growth again, however the sheer magnitude of growth for this country remains impressive and still of course plays a large role in the world economy. The Economist reports that although the rate is lower, a growth rate of 7% in 2015 for China would generate more additional output than a 14% pace did in 2007.  They also point out that the cyclical and policy explanations for this slow down are not at all permanent and that the outlook should improve as the country comes out on top of this cycle. “The target growth rate of approximately 7 per cent takes into consideration what is needed and what is possible,” said Li in a statement regarding his speech in Beijing.

Further investigations by the Economist reveal the strengthening of China’s supply chain.  65% of the components in Chinese made goods made at domestically, which is up from 40% in the mid-1990s. Furthermore, as domestic consumption and demand rises, local firms are producing better-designed and more original products for consumers.

The example of an electronics manufacturer based in Asia displays the competitive advantage China has by hosting more of the supply chain. The company is headquartered in the Philippines and naturally would have preferred deal with manufacturers there, especially as wages and worker turnover are lower in this Southeast nation. However despite this desired proximity, the company accounted for other costs, such as shipping and tax, and deduced that China was ultimately still cheaper due to its cluster of suppliers and buyers.

Onshoring in the US and UK from China would not be a viable solution at this point. Despite the higher wages in China, factories are still much cheaper than domestic factories. Most manufacturers give salaries that are just above the minimum wage, which is 75% less than the cost of an American manufacturer. Moving to another low cost country wouldn’t be the best solution either, as Chinese workers are more efficient than their counterparts in other developing countries. A report by McKinsey found that “labour productivity increased by 11% a year in China from 2007 to 2012, compared with 8% in Thailand and 7% in Indonesia.” Furthermore, as ET2C has pointed out before, Chinese factories are becoming more automated, so therefore there is great potential to improve this productivity rate. In 2013, China became the biggest buyer of automated robots, by purchasing 20% of all those made that year, according to the International Federation of Robotics.

As per our previous articles, the improving logistics and supply chains of inland provinces are attracting large firms to move their manufacturing bases within China.  Foxconn, the maker of the Apple products usually depended on the manufacturing hub in Guangdong. However due to lower wages and other incentives, the tech manufacturer now has large plants in Henan and Sichuan. China still has plenty of room for growth in manufacturing, and it is proving itself a more capable manufacturing nation with strong improvements in productivity rates.

There will be more reports regarding a so-called decline in China’s GDP growth rate, however in this decade China’s economic development has entered a new normal. “Our country is in a crucial period during which challenges need to be overcome and problems need to be resolved,” Mr. Li told the National People’s Congress in his official government work report. ET2C remains optimistic and confident in the capabilities of China’s manufacturing capabilities.

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News on Indian Textiles

India’s history and traditions are woven with the spectacular art and skill that is involved in making textiles produced by thousands of weavers across the country. This mastery of the cloth is not only beautiful, but also extremely beneficial for the Indian economy.

It would almost seem that India textile makers do not even know how great their industry is. For each of the three preceding fiscal years, India has overachieved target sets for textile exports. In fiscal year 2011-12, India exported textiles and apparels totaling US $32.74 billion, well over their target of $28.13 billion for that year. 2012-12 saw similar growth and success, with total exports amounting $34.93 billion over a target of $31 billion. The story was the same in 2013-14, with exports coming to $39.45 compared to a $34 billion target.

Consistently overshooting their target would suggest that Indian textile makers are setting numbers too low, but this type of demand and production demonstrates the quality and consistency of Indian cloth. Reports indicate that these numbers are of course set to grow over the next five years, which will bring more textile options to Western consumers. Production is set to increase up to 112 billion square meters by 2017, which is nearly double the rate it from measurements conducted in 2011. As development continues in the country, India is deemed to have the capacity to produce textiles due to impressive changes within in its economic and demographic development. This will align and create favorable conditions for growth in several categories such as home textiles, apparel and a wide range of other technical textiles. The Indian government is capitalizing this production as part of the ‘Made in India’ campaign by creating more textile parks across the country as well.

Clearly, India has a superior capability to make quality textiles, however the government is also making strides in order to get the product out of the country faster. Recently India and the European Union have reopened a trade agreement known as the Broad-based Trade and Investment Agreement. The BTIA would be the first major economic engagement between the 27 nation EU and India, and if passed it will liberalize merchandize trade for both parties.

Please contact ET2C today for more information about sourcing and procuring Indian textiles.

 

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Tertiary Results of Vietnam’s Economic Growth

2014 has been quite a breakthrough year for the Vietnamese economy and manufacturing sector. The Southeast Asian nation is at last receiving proper recognition for their sound economic policies and efforts to bolster their manufacturing sectors. Standard & Poor’s, Fitch, and Moody’s has upgraded the county’s credit rating earlier this year with applause for Vietnamese efforts towards strong macroeconomic stabilization.

The rating upgrade was well deserved, as the Vietnamese economy continues to expand and create jobs. The GDP growth rate is up 5.62 percent when compared to same time last year and in October, the Vietnam’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was rated at 51.0, indicating a positive outlook for the manufacturing for the country. HSBC forecasts that exports will account for nearly 80 percent of the country’s gross domestic product this year, making Vietnam one of the region’s fiercest competitors with their low cost labor and generous tax benefits for foreign buyers.

Due to this frenzy in manufacturing, logistics companies are receiving a massive increase in orders from Vietnam to various destinations throughout the world. Currently the country has one of the world’s fastest growth rates in airborne shipment rates and it is enticing the region’s biggest cargo airlines to shift more attention to the country. Earlier this year DHL opened a $10 million shipping facility at Ho Chi Minh City’s Tan Son Nhat International Airport to meet an increasing export demand in the country, while Korean and Cathway Airlines have expressed similar keens interest in expansion. In reference to a fully packed plane, a DHL representative was quoted as saying, “This symbolizes the rest of trade in Vietnam. We are going to have a good fourth quarter.” Surely his statement is accurate, as the American Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam reports that shipments may increase by 19 percent for ($29 billion) this year.

ET2C’s Vietnamese office has taken notice of this manufacturing upheavel, and in fact, our clients’ orders are actively contributing to this economic expansion. With focuses on a variety of hardgoods and softgoods, our Vietnamese office has been serving clients since 2007 from Ho Chi Minh City. In recent years we have seen increases in orders from Vietnam’s suppliers due to lowered labor costs, which can at times be 20% cheaper than neighboring countries. ET2C is also able to take advantage of Vietnam’s very low import and export tax duties, which in turn lowers costs for our clients. Contact us today to find out how we can set up value-added sourcing solution for your needs.

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New ‘Silk Road Fund’ will Invigorate Asian Trade

In a bold new effort to shake up existing shipping and transport routes, Chinese leader Xi Jinping plans to set up a ‘Silk Road Fund’ that will finance the construction of infrastructure linking markets in Asia. Xi wishes to “break the connectivity bottleneck” with trade partners in the region in order to provide an alternative to the European and American dominated shipping lines of the Pacific ocean.

This replication of the historic Silk Road, which interlinked the East and West with series of well-established trade routes that stretched from China all the way to the shores of the Mediterranean Sea, will be a long and intensive task for the Chinese to undertake and complete. The country has already pledged to take more than $40 billion from the nation’s foreign exchange reserves to pay for this plan.

Luckily, regional cooperation has been high as Bangladesh, Cambodia, Laos, Mongolia, Myanmar, Pakistan, and Tajikistan have all expressed a keen interest in this fund during a meeting with Xi earlier this month. Kazakhstan, situated on China’s North-western border, has already made promises to spend $44 billion over the next five years on to further improve infrastructure for their railway systems that connect the oil rich country to Europe and Russia. Such support for this project is encouraging for China, as they hope to that the project will come into full form as an economic cooperation bloc between all participating nations.

While ambitious, the plan does in fact solve a few issues with supply chain efficiency. Suppliers in China’s interior provinces have always been a less attractive sourcing option due to their far distance from the shipping ports on the coast. For now, their inland position may make current logistics solutions a bit cumbersome, however with the infrastructure proposed by this plan, trains from central China could reach Germany in a mere 14 days.

Any effort to reduce shipping times is welcomed by those who trade and source from China. Futhermore, such an effort would surely make logistics services more cost competitive, thus providing increased TEU availability and lower prices for shipping customers. While Xi’s grand plan may still be in the distant future, our logistics department always stays on top of any kind of development that effect global trade routes in order to serve our clients best. For more information contact ET2C today and find out how we always finds the most optimal shipping solutions for our clients’ sourcing orders.

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New Foreign Investment in Indian Suppliers

In our past our articles, ET2C has lauded efforts by India Prime Minister Narendra Modi to reinvigorate the country’s stagnant economy. With a new budget and sweeping reforms, it is now obvious that Modi has moved beyond the rhetoric and is indeed actually providing tangible change for the Indian economy. With this, the 3rd largest economy in Asia is now piquing the interest of the most powerful global companies by inviting them into a lucrative and exciting market.

For one there is Jeff Bezos, CEO of e-commerce monolith Amazon.com, who was seen proudly holding a mock-up of a $2 billion cheque in tech capital Bangalore earlier this month. The company plans to launch an aggressive expansion plan in India to expand Amazon’s global reach. “I’m super excited” said Bezos, in a statement that is quite indicative of the mood in the country. India’s well known IT sector is thriving under Modi and many other firms and startups are feeding into this enthusiasm. Amazon’s investment may seem large, but in this market such a grand amount is absolutely necessary in order to compete with the other billion dollar figures that are being tauted by competitors.

Naturally, Modi’s fiscal efforts are having a direct effect on the manufacturing sector and Indian sourcing capabiliities as well. Orders for Indian vendors have increased over the past year as retailers and others are seeking to join in on the potential of a new Indian economy.

British department store Marks & Spencer’s, who has 60% of their sourcing operations already in India, are seeking to expand in the country. There is a similar story for IKEA, who sourced $450 million worth of products from India in 2013. They seek to more than double this figure by 2016 by closing at a near $1 billion bill for the Indian sourcing operations. This could possibly make the country be the largest sourcing point for the Swedish furniture giant, signaling a great deal of confidence in Indian vendors. Like Marks & Spencer’s, IKEA is also seeking to expand their retail presence in India by opening over two dozen locations in the country over the next ten years.

Surprisingly enough, the U.S. White House is also submitting sourcing orders for the President’s private transport. The cabins for the new line of ‘Marine One’ helicopters, the air transport for the US President’s exclusive use, will be made in India. The Indian aviation manufacturer ‘Tata Advanced Systems’ is responsible for constructing the airframes on behalf of American aerospace firm Sikorsky Aircraft. Eyeing the potential for the Indian market, Sikorsky is committed to investing into the country for the next 25 years and beyond.

Likewise, with our presence in Bangalore, ET2C also believes in the potential of this nascent but promising manufacturing market. We too have noticed the sprawling changes that Modi’s new government can offer and have already been able to benefit from reforms and new fiscal initiatives. Our company is currently expanding our India office accept more client orders, all while finding great manufacturing resources within the nation. By adding to our numerous relationships with suppliers in India, ET2C is committed to helping our clients benefit from the great products that Indian vendors can offer. Contact ET2C today to discuss the advantages of an Indian sourcing strategy.

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